Deadline day came and went with a bang, Hull City are somehow sitting pretty, and we've got a full weekend on tap. On the menu today:

Let’s tap in.

On Monday we covered how teams earn their way into the Premier League. Nobody can buy themselves a seat in England’s top division. You earn it, the hard way, over a 46 game season in the second tier.

Today, the two things I promised you:

Let’s start with the bad news. It’s very likely that one (or more) of the teams that just came up is going to do straight back down. They’ve essentially clawed their way into the hottest nightclub in town, only to spill their drink and have the bouncer kick them out a few short hours later.

“Been there, Joe. ‘Enjoy it while it lasts’ and all that though??”

Unfortunately, history tells us they are going to struggle.

Across 33 Premier League seasons with three promoted clubs each year, all three have stayed up together just four times. In three separate seasons, all three went straight back down. The most common outcome is that two survive and one doesn't.

Ipswich Town have been here before, and not that long ago. They went up in 2024/25, spent that one season in the big leagues alongside Leicester and Southampton, and all three were relegated together at the end of it. One year rebuilding in the Championship later, here Ipswich are again. Yo-yo club behavior.

Two games into this season, and it’s more of the same:

History says at least one of them won’t be sitting at the PL bar this time next year. Right now, it’s looking like Coventry.

“Ok, but remind me, what does this have to do with Wrexham?

I’m glad you asked.

Wrexham finished seventh in the Championship last season, two points behind Hull and the final playoff spot. Remember the number from Monday: the Wembley playoff final is worth around $270 million to the winner. Wrexham didn't just miss out on promotion. They missed out on enough money to pay for their new stadium rebuild three times over.

Instead, they're still locked in the Championship grind, and this year's version is nastier than the one they just left. Burnley, West Ham, and Wolves have all been relegated down from the Premier League and will bring parachute payments (see below) and Premier League caliber squads with them. Wrexham will be fighting clubs with far deeper pockets to get another shot at the big time.

There is one thing working in their favor, though. The Championship playoffs have expanded this year from six teams to eight. Under last year's rules, Wrexham's seventh place finish would have missed out again. Under this year's rules, they'd have been in.

“I like their chances.”

The numbers back them up too: analytics firm Opta now gives Wrexham a 35.8% chance of finishing in the new top eight, compared to just 26.2% under last year's top six cutoff. Manager Phil Parkinson called last season's seventh place finish "a real achievement" but says the squad isn't where it needs to be yet. Ryan Reynolds and Rob Mac are backing another push to close that gap.

Getting into the Premier League is the hard part. Staying is the open bar nobody warned you about, and for the club that just misses out, the tab still comes due, just at a different bar.

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/ˈpærəʃuːt ˈpeɪmənts/ 🔊

phrase · soccer

USED IN A SENTENCE

"Wolves, West Ham, and Burnley are all cushioned by parachute payments this season, which is exactly why Wrexham's climb back to the Premier League will feel a little steeper."

Three games worth clearing your Saturday and Sunday for:

Also on the full slate this weekend: Newcastle vs Bournemouth, Fulham vs Palace, Brighton vs Leeds, Brentford vs Sunderland, Forest vs Tottenham, Hull vs Villa, and Everton vs Man Utd.

You know that sinking feeling when you get home from work and suddenly realize it’s your anniversary? That’s deadline day for soccer clubs. Months of saying “that’s ages away” turns into a few hours of frantically throwing money at a box of chocolates and gas station flowers overpriced players you could’ve signed for a fraction of the price weeks ago.

Manchester City have signed Enzo Fernandez from Chelsea for a reported $169 million, making him the joint most expensive player in Premier League history — exactly level with the record Liverpool set for Alexander Isak last summer.

It's a strange twist. Fernandez himself set the previous Premier League transfer record when he joined Chelsea from Benfica back in January 2023 for $145 million. Isak took that record off him last summer. But Enzo's now the first player ever to be sold twice for nine figures — a record all his own.

Elsewhere on deadline day, Tottenham signed defender Tosin Adarabioyo from Chelsea, and Chelsea's move for Monaco's Lamine Camara fell through after Monaco backed out of an already agreed deal, leaving Chelsea fuming.

The transfer window is now shut in England until January. Whatever squads clubs have right now, that's what they're working with for the next four months.

Club and country: Arsenal and England

What to watch for this weekend: Saka turns 25 tomorrow, then lines up against Chelsea on Sunday as Arsenal try to stay unbeaten. He's been one of the most reliable players in the league for half a decade now.

Fact: His name comes from Yoruba, the language of his parents' native Nigeria, and means "adds joy." Feels about right for a player Arsenal built their whole attack around.

Toast: Star Lager. Nigeria's best known beer, for where his family's from.

Follow him here: @bukayosaka87

⚽ Goal of the week: Josh McPake curled in a late stunner to seal Hearts' 3-1 win over 10 man Hibernian in Wednesday's Edinburgh derby.

🎉 Fanzone: Hull City trolled pundit Joe Cole after he said he'd be "stunned" if they stayed up, posting "Came through the back door. Left with three points" after their opening day win over Man United.

📅 On this day: September 4, 1955 — the first ever European Cup match, kicking off the tournament that became the Champions League (which returns for the new season next week).

👕 Wardrobe watch: Brighton will debut a limited edition Nike kit marking their 125th anniversary later this month against Arsenal.

🐣 Underdog corner: Keeping with the theme of promoted club pulling off shocks, Bundesliga new boys SV Elversberg, from a German town of just 13,000, beat German big guns Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 on their top flight debut.

🔗 Most clicked from Monday: Messi has retired from international soccer.

Thanks for stopping by The Tap-Inn.

If you enjoyed this, forward it to that friend who knows nothing about soccer and help spread the good word.

I'll be behind the bar every week, Monday and Friday, serving up soccer. Sláinte.

Joe

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