Why soccer statistics are the Premier League's hottest topic
Plus: Who will play Real Madrid in the Champions League, a nine-year-old club blows everyone's minds, and what did Chelsea star Cole Palmer steal from a teammate?
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Welcome back.
The second round of fixtures of the brand new Premier League season is here already, the draw for European soccer’s biggest trophy was made yesterday, and a pair of professional gamblers have the most successful clubs in England scratching their heads.
If that sounds like a lot, it is. Good thing you’ve got the best damn bartender in town to break it all down. On tap today:
🎲 Soccer Statistics Pt II: the Premier League’s very own version of Moneyball
🏆 Arsenal set to play the most successful team in Champions League history
💸 The transfer window shuts Tuesday, and Aston Villa are still selling the team that won them a trophy
Let’s tap in.
🥃 TOP SHELF
Are Brighton the (old) Oakland A’s of the Premier League?
Part two: why soccer statistics are the hottest topic in the Premier League right now
On Monday we ranked the four stats you see on screen: possession, shots, expected goals and goal difference.
Today is about two clubs who have studied these kind of numbers and are reaping the rewards. Brighton and Brentford.
Let’s start with last weekend. Brighton beat Aston Villa 4-0. Brentford beat Tottenham 3-0. Seven goals, none conceded.
On paper Villa and Tottenham are much bigger clubs. Villa are the reigning Europa League champions. Tottenham will spend north of $375 million on players this summer. Now look at who beat them…
Brentford's ground holds just 17,250 and is wedged between three railway lines. Before 2021 the club hadn't played in England's top division since 1947. Their record signing cost $55 million — spare change down the back of Tottenham's couch.
“Wait, have I seen this movie before?”
Yes, you have. Literally. Brad Pitt played the lead.
Moneyball was the 2003 book about Billy Beane — an Oakland A's general manager with no money — who worked out that baseball was pricing players wrong. He used statistics to identify undervalued players who could help them compete with the much larger payrolls of teams like the New York Yankees, completly ignoring his own scouting department in the process.
In 2002 his team won 103 games. Soccer now has its own version.
“So, who are the Billy Beane types of the Premier League??”
Firstly, Brighton. They’re owned by Tony Bloom. Then there’s Brentford, with Matthew Benham calling the shots. Both made their millions by being very good at placing bets on soccer games. Benham was once Bloom's protégé. Then he left to set up on his own, and Bloom has reportedly never forgiven him.
When Brighton visit Brentford, Bloom won't sit in their boardroom. In 2025 he stood in the away end with the traveling fans instead.
What makes Brighton and Brentford different from the Oakland A’s
A good gambler doesn't try to guess who wins. Anyone can guess. A good gambler waits until the price is wrong, then backs the difference.
While Beane was stuck inside the MLB, with a draft and a fixed pool of players, Bloom and Benham had the whole planet to shop in. They went looking for wrong prices in the soccer transfer market and found it full of them.
The proof
Let’s take a look at Bloom’s record, for example.
He bought Brighton when they sat 16th in the third division. They're now a Premier League regular who have played in Europe.
He backed Union Saint-Gilloise when they were in Belgium's second division, and they've since won that country's title for the first time in 90 years.
Then Hearts in Scotland. The season before he bought them Hearts finished 40 points behind Celtic. Last season they led almost the whole way and lost it on the final day. Nobody outside Celtic and Rangers has won that league in 41 years.
“Should I support Brentford or Brighton, Joe??”
If Moneyball was your kind of story, absolutely.
Just remember how it usually ends. Billy Beane never won a World Series. Hearts didn't win the league. Brighton or Brentford almost certainly won’t either. There’s a glass ceiling at the very, very top that just won’t seem to crack.
That's the deal with these two. You won't win many trophies. But you will beat clubs who spent far more than you did, and you'll enjoy it every time you do.
Brighton play Chelsea on Sunday at 9am ET.
Brentford play Leeds at the same time.
Pick one, pour something, and enjoy the ride.
⏰ TLDR: Brighton and Brentford are run by professional gamblers who spot mispriced players the way they once spotted mispriced bets. Moneyball but for soccer. Pick one and enjoy.
🗣️ SOUND LIKE A REGULAR
“Doing a Leeds”
/ˈduːɪŋ ə ˈliːdz/ 🔊
phrase · soccer
Definition: Spending money you haven't earned yet to prepare for success you haven't achieved yet — then falling apart when it never arrives.
Origin: Leeds United borrowed heavily against gate receipts and TV money they were counting on receiving, all of it resting on qualifying for the Champions League every year. They reached the semifinal in 2001, never got back, and were in the third division by 2007.
USED IN A SENTENCE
"Spurs just paid $170 million for one midfielder and they're not even in Europe this season. One bad year and they're at risk of doing a Leeds."
🗞️ THE WEEKLY TAP-IN
Ever heard of Sabah? Me neither. They’ll be in the Champions League this year.
Premier League Preview
We’re rolling into Matchweek 2 so let’s dive into three big stories so you know what’s worth knowing and what’s worth watching.
🔴Manchester United lost to a club that was in the second division last season. Hull City came up in May and beat them 2-0 on opening weekend. United have as many titles as anyone in England, but they haven't won one since 2013.
Watch: United vs. Ipswich, Sun 11:30am ET, USA Network.🦁Aston Villa won a European trophy in May and have been selling the team ever since. The Europa League ended a 30-year wait for silverware. Both goalscorers from that final have since left, along with another star player, Ezri Konsa, who joined Arsenal last week for around $70 million. As we saw above, Villa lost 4-0 at Brighton last week.
Watch: Aston Villa vs. Arsenal, Mon 3pm ET, USA Network.💸The transfer window shuts Tuesday at 6pm ET. Whatever squad your club has at that moment is what it's stuck with until January. So the clubs who didn't like what they saw last weekend have four days to fix it. Chelsea have agreed a $12m fee to sign Aston Villa goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez.
Read More:Soccer’s transfer window explained
The Champions League Draw
The Champions League is the competition that decides who is the best club side in all of Europe. On Thursday in Monaco, the 36 teams who qualified found out who they're playing in the league phase. Think of it like the NFL regular season.
Everyone gets eight different opponents, four at home and four away, and every result feeds one giant table. Top 8 go straight through to the knockouts, similar to the playoffs. 9th to 24th play a round to survive, a little like wildcard weekend. The rest get knocked out.
Two interesting things that came out of the draw:
Arsenal got the tie of the draw. Real Madrid, winners of this thing fifteen times, are coming to London. Arsenal lost last season's final to PSG on penalties, so they have unfinished business in this tournament.
And then there's Sabah. The Azerbaijani champions were founded in 2017. I’ve got older bottles of wine for goodness’ sake. Last season they averaged just 1,390 fans at home. This fall they'll play Arsenal, Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund. Not bad for a club who gets the same attendance as a good high school team.
The first games are in September.
📝 HAVE A BEER WITH….Cole Palmer
Cole Palmer (middle) looks very confused as Chelsea lift the Club World Cup
Name: Cole Palmer
Club and country: Chelsea FC and England
This week: A goal and an assist in Chelsea's 3-2 win at Fulham. The assist came just 32 seconds into the match.
Fact: Manchester City let him go in 2023 and he went on to score 25 goals in his first Chelsea season.
Toast: An ice-cold pint of Stella. He celebrates goals by pretending to shiver, a move he admits he took off his teammate Morgan Rogers, then went and trademarked it himself. ColeCold Palmer, innit.
Instagram:@colepalmer10
🔥 HOUSE SPECIALS
⚽ Goal of the week. Joško Gvardiol's 91st-minute winner at the Etihad, threaded through by Cherki and confirmed by VAR.
🎉Fanzone.One Sabah supporter turned up alone at the team hotel in Romania, so the players stopped and applauded him.
📅On this day. August 28, 1977: Pelé's last competitive game, winning the NASL title with the Cosmos.
👕Wardrobe watch. Wrexham's new home shirt is embossed with the safety barriers from the old Kop terrace.
🐣Underdog corner. Joe got this one wrong. LASK were 4-0 down on aggregate to Celtic and still went through, winning 5-1 after extra time.
🔗Most clicked from Monday: Why the clock never stops in soccer.
That’s all for this week, folks. See you on Monday.
Sláinte